WHIP and ERA is Sports Handicapping

Bill James, the baseball numbers guru is being featuredBut even with picking our baseball underdogs, we
on 60 Minutes. But how do his numbers apply tobecame victims of the successes we had in other
baseball betting?sports. We take great pride in being ahead of the
We are often asked what our best sport is incurve with modern technology. The Internet made
handicapping. We've gotten to the point where we areevery team the "local team" from a handicapping
at the top of the list in every sport, so it's difficult tostandpoint because once regional information is now
single one out. However there is no question that ourso easily accessible.
mastery of baseball in the early 1990s is what vaultedThe World Wide Web has been a boon to us in
me to the point where professional sportspreseason NFL with accurate key player rotation and
handicapping would be my lifelong profession.motivation info. In college football and basketball it has
Yet, to be perfectly frank, while continuing to improverevolutionized the way sharp players bet.
upon our results in other sports, over the last year andWhile super systems have been a great addition in all
a half, I returned to the pack in baseball. It was time forsports including baseball, our self scrutiny brought to
some serious introspection. Fortuitously, going back tolight that we were allowing the Billy Beane and Bill
my handwritten spiral notebook score phone days, IJames inspired new fangled stats to convince us out
saved my picks, analysis and results from decadesof winning picks.
past.In our first two decades of handicapping, we have had
Was I doing something differently all of a sudden?significant success with big underdogs by riding either
After a few hours of soul searching, it becamehot but non-elite pitchers and/or fading struggling star
obvious I slowly but surely abandoned some of thepitchers. Yet information overload had us finding a fly
basics that got me to the pinnacle in the first place.ball/ground ball ratio or walks/strikeout percentage that
In some respects, I became a victim of my owntalked us out of the same kind of plays that for
success. In 2005, I had probably my best year winningdecades won for us.
what we call "Dandy Dogs". Dandy Dogs areLet there be no doubt whatsoever that ERA and
moneyline dogs of 140 or more (includes runline playsWHIP are still the two most important statistics in
getting back 140 or more).foretelling future results of pitchers. Likewise in
The downside was it led me to develop a bias againsthandicapping offense we have streamlined with great
even small favorites. I've known and preached forsuccess. Just like for 20 plus years, we returned to
years the basics of risk/reward ratio. For example, autilizing on base percentage and slugging percentage
150 favorite needed to have a 60 percent chance offoremost.
winning to be a break even bet or based on ourWe never stop fine tuning our techniques but our
threshold had to have 70 percent chance of winning tointrospection reminds us sometimes we need to
be a premium play. Yet there were nights I'd go 3-4remember "if it ain't broken, don't fix it". Since returning
and still win money because of betting all dogs. Bit byto our roots in baseball handicapping,
bit, I developed personal chalk reluctance in betting.not-so-coincidently we have returned to the results our
Too many well-handicapped favorites of more thanclients and we desire.
120 became passes for me simply because of myWith all other sports, utilizing the Internet and cutting
increasing acute prejudice against laying the juice.edge computer software is imperative to staying
Since returning to my roots, the 120-160 favorites haveahead of the curve, but MLB is the clear exception.
been a major reason behind my return to MLBBaseball handicapping is much like playing the game:
handicapping prominence.master the basic fundamentals.