| If you ask any die hard NFL fan what is a great bet to | | | | handicap the home underdog by a couple of points |
| make, many will come up with the same answer. It's | | | | because of this powerful betting legend, but take heed, |
| an answer that has been passed down from | | | | betting the home dog is merely a legend. |
| generation of NFL Bettor to the next. The answer: | | | | The results of my PhD Statistician's research proved |
| "Take the Home Underdog!" The logic is pretty straight | | | | conclusively that home underdogs win against the point |
| forward, the team is playing at home, the players feel | | | | spread anywhere from 41-47% of the time. Hence, |
| boosted by their fans... The bet is considered in folklore | | | | picking the other side against home NFL underdogs will |
| as being an absolute sure thing when placed on a | | | | win anywhere from 53-59% of the games. I have |
| Monday night. | | | | always felt there is truth in numbers and when you |
| There is one problem with this legend: its not true. The | | | | take seasons and seasons worth of data and they |
| PhD Statistician that I hired to run a regression of all | | | | lead to clear conclusions, there is value to be had. You |
| sports betting outcomes over the past 15 years came | | | | only need to win 52.7% of your NFL bets to win |
| up with a very different answer. It is never a good | | | | money and here is one that is destroying the NFL |
| idea to bet the underdog playing at home. I don't know | | | | betting public. |
| the reasoning, maybe because the odds makers | | | | |