Sports Handicapping and Money Management - Part 2

Money Management applies the superior investingThis, despite the 2 bettors wagering on the same
principle of wagering a percentage of available capitalcards as they were turned up one by one.
rather than a constant flat dollar amount. In SportsWhat Happened?!
Handicapping And Money Management - Part 1, weWhat the 50% bankroll bettor (and the average fan
examined "Flat Sports Gambling Systems" andgambling on sports) failed to understand is that for the
demonstrated its shortcomings. Percentage Sportsgreatest return on any series of wagering opportunities
Gambling Systems are the preferred method forthere is a precise percentage of bankroll that should
professional sports handicappers and investors, whichbe risked. Even with more winners than losers, betting
is the subject of this article.considerably more than the "magic number" will
Some "pros" try to combine the opposing theories byultimately result in a net loss. PRO INFO SPORTS has
advising that a flat amount determined by a setnamed this ideal figure the "PEAK PROFIT
percentage of a starting bankroll be wagered onPERCENTAGE" or "PPP". The sequence of winners
games until the total funds are increased or decreasedand losers in the card game or even in sporting events
to a degree (50%, for example), at which point the flathave no bearing whatsoever on the results of the
amount is recalculated from the set percentage of theapplication of the PPP principle. Using the same
new bankroll amount.percentages, the outcome will be the same every
This is only a slight improvement on thetime, regardless of win-loss pattern.
aforementioned pure flat sports gambling system planThis Peak Profit Percentage is determined by the
since, after the first wager is either won or lost in suchexpected winning percentage for a series of wagering
a scenario, the distinct advantage of percentageevents. In the card game model, the anticipated winning
betting is lost. The inherent flaw of flat bettingpercentage for 52 bets is 61.5% which has a
(increasingly higher-percentage wagers the morecorresponding PPP of 23%. Any percent of bankroll
money lost, and increasingly lower-percentage wagerswagered less or more than 23% in such a scenario will
the more money won) is then forced into effect. Thenot be as profitable, and gains are eventually turned
illogical disparity only increases until the staticinto losses if the PPP is exceeded too greatly. This is
percentage is finally recalculated from the new bankrollwhy the card game's 25% player enjoyed a 400%+
and not the one of days, weeks, or even months ago.ROI (Return On Investment), while the 50% bettor
Since percentage wagering is clearly superior to flatsuffered a -50%+ ROI.
sports gambling systems, it is most financially favorableThe Peak Profit Percentage concept can be a difficult
to reconcile the fixed percentage of bankroll beforeone to comprehend but the numbers do not lie. All
each wager to avoid the mistaken use of a flat bettingprofessional investors (stocks, bonds, sports wagering,
scheme for any number of games.etc.) should be mindful of this numerical phenomenon
Having established the superiority of percentageand use it to their profitable advantage.
wagering over any type of flat sports gamblingSince the Peak Profit Percentage is determined by
system, the consideration becomes one of determininganticipated winning percentage, having a realistic
what percentage is ideal and whether it ever variesexpectation in sports wagering is imperative. Those
from game to game."scamdicappers" claiming long-term winning opinions of
Many percentage bettors incorrectly presume that a67% or better should not be relied upon for sports
winning percentage above 52.5% (the break evenhandicapping or investment advice. Of course, these
point due to the 10% sportsbook "vigorish") willself-proclaimed experts would never suggest a
ultimately return a profit regardless of what bankrollgamble of anything near 28% of a bankroll on one of
percentage is invested, as long as it is consistently andtheir "superlocks" or "games of the year", yet 28% is
continually applied, and that with a better-than-52.5%indeed the PPP for a 67% winning expectation. Is it
winning percentage an increasingly higher percentageplausible for these touts to be brilliant,
of bankroll wagered will produce increasingly largerborderline-psychic when it comes to handicapping
profits. The potential financial pitfalls of thissports but completely devoid of basic money
misconception can be illustrated by the followingmanagement awareness? We find it much more likely
hypothetical gaming example:that their true winning percentage is much, much lower
PICK YOUR PERCENTAGEthan advertised.
Two friends enter a casino and are intrigued by a newWe are confident that we will to continue to offer our
card game called "Pick Your Percentage". The gameclients a winning expectation of 55%-60%. Looking at
features a dealer taking a single deck of cards andthe figures within that range, a Peak Profit Percentage
turning the cards face-up, one at a time, while theof 5% can be calculated from the low end (55%
players wager on each card.winners) and a PPP of 15% at the high end (60%
To play, each bettor simply has to declare a startingwinners). Taking the riskiest position with a $1000
bankroll and what constant percentage of his bankrollbankroll (wagering 15% per game) would actually result
will be wagered on each card. All 10's, face cards, andin a net loss of $348 after 100 events if the winning
aces are winners for the house while the cardspercentage actually turned out to be at the low end of
numbered 2-9 are winners for the players; thus, out of55%. A sports investor should never be penalized for
52 betting opportunities the players would be"only" producing 55% winners. On the other hand,
guaranteed 32 winners against only 20 losers for ataking the most conservative position (5% wagers)
61.5% winning percentage.with a $1000 bankroll will show a profit after 100
The gentlemen sit down at the table to play through agames, ranging from $148 (with 55% winners) to $944
deck. The first man declares a starting bankroll of(60% winners), so we find that there is no overall
$1000 and a wager of 25% of bankroll per card. Theadvantage of risking more than 5% of current bankroll
second bettor also declares a starting bankroll ofon even the strongest of our expert sports picks and
$1000 but states he will risk 50% of his bankroll onselections.
each card, assuming he will at least double his friend'sApplying the same investment principles to our
winnings.remaining sports picks which have a slightly lower (but
After the dealer is finished going through the deck, thestill profitable) winning expectation, we have a Money
bettor risking 25% of his bankroll on each card hasPlay STAR SELECTION RATING SYSTEM with
quadrupled his original bankroll and ends the game withcorresponding PPPs, which we'll cover in detail for our
over $4000. The bettor risking 50% of his bankroll onnext article - Sports Handicapping And Money
each card has lost more than half of his original $1000Management - Part 3.
bankroll and ends the game with a little over $400.