| You may or may not have already learned that future | | | | O'Neal's status changed the balance of power |
| bets are wagers placed far in advance of a sporting | | | | between the Eastern and Western Conference in |
| event after reading our Overview of Sports Gambling | | | | both situations, with the Heat becoming serious title |
| Bet Types. The basics are all there, so the purpose of | | | | contenders in his first year with the team. A smart |
| this article is to explain why futures offer such strong | | | | NBA futures bettor would have put money on the |
| value and give tips on improving your chances to win | | | | Heat to win the NBA title or Eastern Conference right |
| when betting futures. | | | | after the trade was made. |
| The main advantage of futures is that you can get | | | | In NBA basketball and MLB baseball, the midseason |
| appealing odds by betting when oddsmakers first | | | | trade deadline could also be very critical to a team's |
| release them or well before an event is decided. For | | | | improvement. The New York Yankees tried very hard |
| example, placing a future wager on the Kentucky | | | | to yank ace pitcher Randy Johnson from the Arizona |
| Derby a month ahead of time can get you a much | | | | Diamondbacks at the 2004 deadline and probably |
| better price on a horse than betting much closer to the | | | | would have won the World Series if they had done so. |
| race when the real contenders are revealed for all to | | | | Instead, they were forced to wait until the offseason |
| see. Future odds are not set and can be adjusted by | | | | to make the trade for Johnson and didn't have enough |
| sportsbooks periodically, but the odds at the time of | | | | pitching to get past the Boston Red Sox, who went on |
| your wager are the odds you are locked into. | | | | to win the World Series. |
| A futures bet example with major team sports would | | | | In college football and basketball, there is the added |
| be NFL futures, where you often can get much higher | | | | dimension of a team's returning starters. Graduation or |
| odds on a team by betting before the season starts. | | | | early defection of players to the pros play a critical |
| An NFL future bet on a team to win the Super Bowl | | | | role in the team's makeup for the next season and |
| might be 20/1 in the preseason, but by midseason, | | | | should be examined. However, while losing a Heisman |
| those odds might decrease to 10/1 if the team turns | | | | Trophy winner like quarterback Carson Palmer in 2003 |
| out to be a legitimate championship contender. | | | | seemed to be a blow to USC's chances of winning a |
| It's important to note that sportsbooks can change | | | | national title, it also allowed another Heisman Trophy |
| futures at any time, and they are available to be bet all | | | | winner to shine in Matt Leinart, so not all losses hurt an |
| the way until the event gets underway. Future bets | | | | NCAA program. |
| are also not restricted to the championship game, as | | | | Timing is everything with player movement. Sometimes |
| you can bet on who will win a conference or division | | | | these moves pay off, sometimes they don't, but they |
| too. | | | | often seem to give teams a fighting chance in bettor's |
| Future bets in NFL and college football, NBA and | | | | minds and make future bets more interesting. |
| college basketball and MLB baseball are team-oriented | | | | Coaching Moves |
| in that you bet on the team's performance while | | | | The Tampa Bay Buccaneers made big news during |
| proposition bets on non-team future events that | | | | the 2002 offseason when they pried Jon Gruden |
| involve individuals like boxing, tennis, golf and NASCAR | | | | away from the Oakland Raiders to be their head |
| are also available. Keep in mind that with futures you | | | | coach. Tampa Bay management felt like they had the |
| are always betting that the event will happen, on | | | | right players in place and just needed the right person |
| whether the team will accomplish something such as a | | | | to put all the pieces together and lead the way. |
| championship and not against their chances of doing | | | | After a series of hiring mishaps, including the failed |
| so. For example, if Duke is 5/1 to win the NCAA | | | | recruitment of coaching legend Bill Parcells, Gruden |
| Basketball Championship, you can bet $100 on Duke | | | | turned out to be their man and proved to be the |
| and will win $500 if they win it all - but with standard | | | | difference. It wasn't cheap since it cost the |
| future betting you cannot bet against Duke winning it all. | | | | Buccaneers a number of draft picks and money, but |
| Tips to Win | | | | nobody could argue it wasn't worth the price when |
| The key to betting futures is realizing their true value | | | | they won their first Super Bowl. The best futures price |
| and using the right Tips to Win. The most important | | | | on the Bucs turned out to be before the regular |
| consideration is determining what changes a team has | | | | season started and the full impact of Gruden was felt |
| made to enhance their chances of vying for a | | | | in Tampa and throughout the rest of the NFL. |
| championship like the Super Bowl or World Series. | | | | Measuring True Value |
| Draft choices, coaching changes, free-agent signings, | | | | Once you put all of the Tips to Win together, you need |
| trades and returning starters all impact a team's ability | | | | to try to measure the true value of a team's future bet |
| to compete, so each aspect should be considered | | | | chances. But your perception of how well a team will |
| when making your future bet. | | | | perform and how you interpret the significance of the |
| The Draft | | | | Tips to Win will determine whether or not a team is |
| The draft is a much bigger factor in NBA basketball | | | | worth betting on. |
| and NFL football since a rookie can approach | | | | Sometimes a team comes along like the 1999 St. Louis |
| superstar status much earlier (i.e. LeBron James) than | | | | Rams, who won the Super Bowl that year despite |
| other sports like MLB baseball where it can take years | | | | entering the season as a longshot at incredible 200/1 |
| for players to develop. Of course the way the drafts | | | | odds. When such longshots come in it demonstrates |
| are structured, the weaker teams almost always | | | | another strong appeal of future bets, that a fan can |
| select players higher than the stronger teams. | | | | make a small bet on a longshot, enjoy following their |
| However, elite teams like the San Antonio Spurs and | | | | results all season, and just maybe cash a huge ticket! |
| New England Patriots are well-known for making the | | | | A safer approach is to pick a playoff team or one that |
| most of their picks despite poor draft positioning. | | | | just missed out from the previous year and made |
| Player Movement | | | | some smart moves to turn them into a contender. |
| Nothing has changed the landscape of sports over the | | | | Betting the preseason favorite like last year's champs |
| past 20 years more than free agency. Superstars like | | | | is a bit risky since their odds are already so low and a |
| Shaquille O'Neal can simply walk away at the end of | | | | lot more money would need to be wagered to make it |
| their contracts, forcing their teams to decide the | | | | worthwhile. However, there is still some value in |
| likelihood of their re-signing and potentially trading them | | | | instances like this if you feel strongly that they can go |
| before their contracts are up to get something in | | | | deep into the playoffs again. The further they go, the |
| return. | | | | smaller their odds will likely get along the way and the |
| O'Neal is a perfect example to examine since he left | | | | more value you will have by betting far in advance. |
| the Orlando Magic as a free agent to join the Los | | | | That's the bottom line with any futures bet - the true |
| Angeles Lakers in 1996, leaving the Magic with nothing | | | | value comes down to how you feel about a team |
| in return. Eight years later, he forced the Lakers to | | | | compared to the oddsmaker's projections. If your Tips |
| trade him to the Miami Heat so the Lakers could get | | | | to Win point to a team worth betting on and that team |
| something in return while he was still under contract | | | | ultimately follows through, you'll have a rooting interest |
| since he made it known he would not re-sign with | | | | all season long and will get the very most out of your |
| them. | | | | futures wager! |