| One of the most frequently asked questions college | | | | the Crimson Tide and the Utes, it became clearer than |
| football bettors ask is how do you pick winners? | | | | a over-priced bottled water, Utah was the play. About |
| Someone long before yours truly came along wished | | | | 10 days before the game was played, made my |
| they had come up with that answer. The best answer | | | | investment and the win was one of the easiest of the |
| involves one of the most elementary of aspects in | | | | entire bowl season. |
| being successful not only in picking college foot games, | | | | Just a few weeks ago, a number came up that left |
| but in life and at work, know your fundamentals. | | | | me speechless. USC and Oregon was a huge game |
| What this means is developing as set of statistics that | | | | recently in the Pac-10 and though the Ducks had a |
| are reliable and can be counted on week after week. | | | | swagger about them, they were playing the Trojans, |
| Phil Steele of Northcoast Sports uses as many as nine | | | | who ALWAYS play well in big games and win the |
| sets of power ratings for his college football annual. | | | | vast majority of the time. Taking into consideration |
| When I sat down with the boss, Ken White of Las | | | | home field advantage (having specific numbers for |
| Vegas Sports Consultants, he showed me books he | | | | each team's home field edge is a must for accuracy) |
| uses to develop several types of power ratings. | | | | for the Ducks, Oregon came up as 5.5-point favorites. I |
| StatFox does much the same, having free power | | | | was stunned. Despite over 20 years of honing |
| ratings on its college football pages along with having | | | | numbers just like these, I let personal prejudice blind my |
| others that are used for statistical analysis for the | | | | judgment and passed on the game. I believe the term |
| Foxsheets product. | | | | for that is "buffoon". |
| Most every self-taught handicapper or sports bettor | | | | While I missed on that superb opportunity, others have |
| has to have a set of numbers that can help them | | | | come that made more sense that have led to |
| create an initial snapshot of how a college football | | | | significant profits. If you go back and review all the |
| contest may turn out. Being able to analyze and | | | | preseason annuals, nobody had Tennessee in their |
| create information is the lifeblood of sports wagering | | | | Top 25. However, the Vols had a certain charm with a |
| success. Renowned professional sports bettor Lem | | | | good defense, supposedly improved offense and |
| Banker lived a very comfortable life betting sports and | | | | coaching staff that was energizing the program. |
| was known to have the sharpest numbers around | | | | Tennessee started the year at No. 15 and has been in |
| from his own figures. | | | | the Top 25 all but one week. |
| I delved into numbers a long time ago, starting with | | | | Does that seem crazy for a team that is 5-4, you bet, |
| magazine still in existence called GamePlan. In there, | | | | in terms of conventional wisdom. Let's dig a little |
| they had a set of numbers for every college football | | | | deeper. The Volunteers are 3-3 as favorites this |
| team (they also had NFL). Before computers, this was | | | | season, with matching spread record. Dress the |
| strictly manual labor and I started charting these | | | | orange and white clad Vols up as underdogs and we |
| numbers and over the years fine-tuned them to | | | | find three defeats, which are comfortably masked as |
| today's present form. | | | | three covers of the spread. Here is the point of finding |
| This activity isn't for everyone, since it is time | | | | overvalued teams as set by the oddsmakers. |
| consuming and definitely cuts into your social life, | | | | Florida -30 over Tennessee (PR - Florida -18.5) |
| however if you are truly interested in winning at sports | | | | Georgia -1.5 over Tennessee (PR - Vols -7) |
| betting beyond just a hobby, this activity is a must. | | | | Alabama -14 over Tennessee (PR - Alabama -10) |
| Again I will state as I have often before, there is no | | | | Remember, the odds are stacked against you. In order |
| one way to win betting sports, much like the stock | | | | to win you have to pay 11 to win 10. (Try making a bet |
| market, it's a series of factors that allows you to profit, | | | | with your friends using that technique) Any edge you |
| not a singular entity. That's not saying you can't by | | | | can create that provides even the slightest chance of |
| applying just one methodology, you would have to | | | | winning is beneficial. You can search the internet to find |
| instead narrow focus and be satisfied with fewer | | | | power ratings (as mentioned StatFox has free one's) |
| plays from lacking additional information, not a bad way | | | | and it's not too late, with four weeks still to go in the |
| to go. | | | | regular season and the entire bowl season ahead. |
| Here was my current Top 5 going into the weekend. | | | | Armed with this information and strong analytical data |
| 1) Texas | | | | that shows the strengths and weaknesses of all |
| 2) Florida | | | | teams, you really can get ahead of the curve and |
| 3) TCU | | | | close like Mariano Rivera this college football season. |
| 4) Alabama | | | | Betting Tips - |
| 5) Boise State | | | | There are presently six FBS teams that still have not |
| For the people that I've shared this with, I'm told I'm | | | | suffered a loss. If and when one of these teams does |
| crazy to have Boise State rated this high, they should | | | | fall, play against them the following week. (Look at |
| be in the seven or eight range. I don't disagree; I just | | | | Iowa this week)The disappointment of losing later in |
| total the numbers with the various factors and add | | | | the year often crushes dreams and those teams |
| them up. Making in season adjustments makes the | | | | cover less than 40 percent of the time after 8-0 start. |
| numbers subjective and that lessens the value of the | | | | November is a time of long-standing traditional rivalries. |
| numbers. | | | | If trends suggest one team or situation has gone a |
| While the point is to create a picture, it is also designed | | | | particular way for years and the teams are not that |
| to find value. Here is a perfect example from last | | | | far apart talent-wise or statistically, have the trend be |
| year's bowl season. For the Sugar Bowl, Alabama | | | | your friend. |
| was bounced around as a 9.5 to 10-point favorite, | | | | Teams that play a physical style of football will win |
| before it settled at the lower number the day of the | | | | more often from now until the end of the season. Less |
| game (7.5). The Monday after the regular season | | | | physical teams will wear down from a grinding season |
| ended, Alabama came in at No. 6 and Utah at No.9 in | | | | and whatever injuries have occurred will expose |
| my power ratings. For this BCS bowl, the Crimson Tide | | | | backups not ready for this level of football. Play on |
| came out as six-point favorites or nowhere near the | | | | teams that run the ball and can stop the run late in the |
| number assigned by oddsmakers. This became a red | | | | season. |
| flag and after reviewing several other elements about | | | | |