| Sports betting success often times comes down to | | | | On the other hand, Ball St. has played 10 road games |
| knowing the personalities of the teams that are playing. | | | | on natural grass since 2002, and they've lost 9 out of |
| One aspect of a team's personality is how well they | | | | 10 SU, and are only 4-6 ATS on grass playing away |
| play on artificial turf compared to natural grass. Here's | | | | from home. Do you see a pattern here? Do you think |
| an analysis I did of a game between Ball St. and | | | | maybe Ball St.'s team is more suited for playing on |
| Toledo that exemplifies how to use this information to | | | | artificial turf than on grass? |
| make money: | | | | Even against #2 Michigan, Ball State QB Nate Davis |
| This game matches up two teams that have put up a | | | | and speedy wideout Darius Love had big games, with |
| lot of points, and have given up a lot of points this | | | | Davis throwing for for 250 yards, and Love having |
| season. Ball State is averaging 27 points on offense, | | | | over 100 yards in receiving, including over a 17 yard |
| while averaging giving up 28 points on defense. Toledo | | | | average per catch. There's no reason that Davis and |
| is giving up even more points on defense, 29 per | | | | Love shouldn't have a similar game against Toledo, a |
| game, while "only" averaging scoring 23 points per | | | | team that's averaged giving up over 400 total yards |
| game. | | | | per game. The fact that this game is being played on |
| Ball State has managed to cover 6 out of 9 games | | | | artificial turf |
| this year, even though they have a lousy 3-7 SU | | | | The bottom line on this game is that Ball State has a |
| record. But their ATS record doesn't include a game | | | | legitimate chance to win outright. The fact that they're |
| that they lost SU to N. Dakota St. For accuracy sake, | | | | getting 5-points may be a bonus. |
| let's count this game against Ball St., making their "real" | | | | The downside is that Ball St. was creamed by Toledo |
| ATS record 6-4. | | | | each of the last two seasons, losing in 2005 by a |
| But here's an interesting fact relating to tonight's game. | | | | score of 34-14, and losing in 2004 by a score of 52-14. |
| Ball St., who plays their home games on grass, has a | | | | I know this is 2006, not 2004 or 2005, but when you |
| surprisingly great record playing on artificial turf. In their | | | | look at a recent history that's been so one-sided, you |
| last 10 games, Ball St. is 8-2 ATS on artificial turf, | | | | can see why everybody expects Toledo to win this |
| including SU upsets against Miami (OH), E. Michigan, N. | | | | game. The end result is that these factors tend to |
| Illinois (a game where Ball St. was a 28-point dog), and | | | | even out, with only a slight edge going to Ball St. |
| W. Michigan (a game where Ball St. was an 11 1/2-point | | | | I'd lean to Ball State to cover with Ball St. upsetting |
| dog). | | | | Toledo 34-31. But again, keep in mind, that there is |
| Ball State has beaten the line by a whopping 17 points | | | | nothing to make me think that this is a very high |
| per game! And all of these upsets happened when Ball | | | | probability play. |
| St. was playing away on artificial turf. | | | | |