| As a sports bettor, you need to be able to compare | | | | to win. This applies to all kinds of sports picks, including |
| what you believe is the likelihood of any outcome to | | | | basketball picks, baseball picks and football picks. |
| the odds available. This is the essence of handicapping. | | | | Sports books do their best to predict outcomes and |
| When posted odds give you the advantage, those are | | | | give fair odds, but you must be aware that they do |
| good sports picks and bets you want to make. This | | | | not offer “true odds.” If Team A is the favorite |
| occurs whenever you believe the odds you receive | | | | at -110, then true odds for the opposing Team B would |
| for your baseball picks, basketball picks or football | | | | be +110; opposing bets would cancel each other out. |
| picks are higher than the probability of your bet | | | | But the bookmakers need to ensure a profit for |
| succeeding. | | | | themselves, so they build into the odds a margin called |
| Here’s a simple example. You believe sports Team | | | | vigorish, or “juice.” That means instead of |
| A is twice as good as Team B. That is equivalent to | | | | offering true odds, they shift the line a few points to |
| odds of 2 to 1 on Team B. If the posted odds are | | | | either +105 for Team B or -115 for Team A. Now, |
| higher than that, say 3 to 1 or more, Team B is a good | | | | instead of cancelling each other out, the new line |
| pick. But what if the odds are 3 to 2? That’s lower | | | | guarantees the book will earn a nickel in profit no |
| than 2 to 1, so Team A becomes the good pick. | | | | matter which baseball picks, football picks or basketball |
| Odds such as these are called “fractional odds,” | | | | picks win, as long as betting is equal on both sides. |
| and they are sometimes expressed as fractions, like 2 | | | | When you see big differences between true odds and |
| 1, or ratios, such as 2:1. Either way, it means you would | | | | posted odds, look for opportunity. It may mean the |
| receive two dollars in winnings for every one dollar | | | | house is artificially trying to “balance its book,” |
| risked. Odds of 6/5 means you win six bucks for | | | | covering heavy bets on one side by trying to attract |
| every five dollars wagered. Odds on heavy favorites | | | | more bets on the other, or else discouraging additional |
| often result in tiny payoffs. Odds of 2:5, for example, | | | | betting on the top choice. |
| mean you have to risk $5 to win $2, not a good pick if | | | | One other factor you need to be aware of is the |
| you believe the favorite is only twice as good as the | | | | spread. Losing teams can win you a lot of money if |
| underdog, whether you are playing football picks, | | | | you know how to make the right sports picks. |
| basketball picks or baseball picks. | | | | Bookmakers calculate not only which teams will win, |
| Another way of expressing odds is called the | | | | but by what margin. If Team A is a six-point favorite in |
| “money line,” which is much more common than | | | | a game, you can bet on opposing Team B +6.0 and |
| fractions in betting on sports picks. When two teams | | | | you will win your bet if Team B loses by no more than |
| are evenly matched, the money line is said to be 100. | | | | 5 points. |
| It’s the same as 1:1 odds, or a dollar won for each | | | | Spreads are often expressed with half points added |
| dollar bet. A money line of +200 would be the same | | | | on, to eliminate the possibility of ties. If you pick Team |
| as 2:1, or two dollars in profit for each dollar wagered. | | | | A -6.5, you will be a winner only if they “cover the |
| Money line odds can also be negative. That tells you | | | | spread” by a winning margin of 7 points or more. |
| how much you need to risk to win a dollar, so a | | | | The spread is frequently combined with the money line, |
| money line of -200 is the same as 1:2 odds. You would | | | | again to give the house its margin against baseball |
| have to put up two dollars for every dollar you want | | | | picks, basketball picks and football picks. |