| Have you ever wondered how the sports betting | | | | the final score should fall near the line of 23. Here's |
| "smart money" became the smart money? Do you | | | | another way to look at it. Sometimes viewing games |
| wonder what the football betting smart money does | | | | as a grid of possible outcomes, it becomes easier to |
| differently than the amateurs? | | | | see the high percentage play. |
| To get an idea how a professional sports handicapper | | | | Here's a table of possible results showing likely scores |
| analyzes a game, let's take a look at the analysis I did | | | | depending on whether or not each team has a "good" |
| for my clients for the Fresno St. vs. Boise St. game: | | | | or "bad" game: |
| Fresno St. at Boise St. -23 | | | | Boise St. Fresno St. Possible Final Score |
| The line on this game is "only" 23 because of Fresno | | | | Average Game Average Game 46-14 |
| St. past reputation as a half-decent team. This Fresno | | | | Bad game Bad game 36-10 |
| St. team is terrible, going 1-6 SU so far this season. | | | | Good game Good game 55-26 |
| More importantly, Boise St. is playing at home, and | | | | Bad game Good game 36-26 |
| Boise St. is ranked 14th in the nation for good reason. | | | | Good game Bad game 55-10 |
| They are unstoppable on offense, especially playing at | | | | As you can see, there is only one scenario where |
| home. | | | | Fresno St. has a chance to cover. That's if they have |
| Here's a scary stat for you to think about... | | | | a good game, and Boise St. has a bad game. All other |
| Boise St. is averaging 40 points per game this season, | | | | scenarios point to Boise St. covering the 23 points. I.e., if |
| and Fresno St.'s defense is giving up on average a | | | | Boise St. has a good game, Fresno St. has no chance |
| total of 32 points per game. In their last two games, | | | | to cover. Likewise, if Fresno St. has a bad game, they |
| Fresno St. has given up an average of 56 points per | | | | have no chance to cover. |
| game. | | | | Of course the models we use to determine the |
| Meanwhile, Boise St. has only scored under 36 points | | | | "possible" scores are proprietary statistical models that |
| once all season. Boise St. has scored over 40 points in | | | | use weighted factors. It's the same type of analysis |
| 6 games. Boise St. has averaged 46 points per game | | | | used by financial traders to calculate probabilities. Keep |
| in their last three home games, and has average | | | | in mind, we're only playing probabilities, and even when |
| beating the spread by a full 7 points in their last three | | | | the odds are in your favor, you can still lose. That's |
| home games, even though they were favored by an | | | | why it's important to manage risk by staying disciplined |
| average of 20 points per game. At the same time, | | | | with your bet size. |
| Fresno St. has averaged about 13 points per game in | | | | Bottom line, Boise St. is likely to run up the score tonight |
| their last three road games, scoring only 6, 12, and 20 | | | | and win going away, 52-17. |
| points. | | | | The actual final score was Boise St. 45, Fresno St. 21. |
| What this adds up to is a game in which you can | | | | Boise St. covered the spread by 1 point. However, |
| expect Boise St. to score at least in the mid-40's, and | | | | what you don't realize by just seeing the score is that |
| Fresno St. to score 20 points if they have a great | | | | Fresno St. was only able to make it close by returning |
| game. In other words, if Boise St. just plays their | | | | an interception for a touchdown. |
| average game, and Fresno St. plays a great game, | | | | |