| book "Betting to win" Prof. Williams wrote: "If ever | | | | higher than 1, the bet is considered a "value bet". |
| there was a golden age of betting, this is it". He was | | | | -- The probabilities of home win/draw/away win are |
| absolutely right. In today's world of soccer betting, we | | | | estimated by the average frequency of their |
| enjoy the services of bookmakers, online betting tips | | | | appearance during a season. |
| and media news. But still there remain two important | | | | -- Kelly's strategy defines the optimal stake that a |
| questions any punter has to answer prior to placing his | | | | punter should place on a favorite. |
| stake: who is the favorite and what bet to place. | | | | -- Given the value of each outcome, the profit is |
| Online betting resources such as betting tips sites, | | | | calculated based on the assumption that the punter |
| team analysis made by experts and the media news | | | | places a stake according to the Kelly's strategy. If the |
| help you to choose the match favorite and even to | | | | betting stake is negative, the punter doesn't play. The |
| estimate the probability of win in no time. However, | | | | profit is calculated using bookmakers average betting |
| counting your profits at the end of the season, you find | | | | odds. |
| them, at the very least, disappointing. Why? The | | | | -- An optimal value bet is the value bet that brings the |
| reason is clear: bad money management. | | | | maximal profit. |
| This article summarizes a research conducted in order | | | | -- Data from ten top and ten secondary leagues from |
| to estimate the optimal parameters for money | | | | the following European countries was analyzed: |
| management strategies. The research is based on a | | | | Austria, England, Netherlands, France, Germany, |
| comparison between statistics of top vs. secondary | | | | Greece, Italia, Scotland, Spain and Turkey. |
| European soccer leagues playing in 2008/09 and 2009 | | | | Summary |
| 10 seasons. | | | | A punter's average profit from soccer betting is |
| Definitions | | | | calculated for value bets from 1.01 to 2. The optimal |
| In order to present the results of the research, a | | | | value bet was found to be 1.38, offering in an average |
| number of definitions are required. | | | | profit of 12% for the top European Soccer Leagues. |
| -- "Value bet" is the measure of inconsistency | | | | However, the optimal value bet for the secondary |
| between punters' and bookmakers' predictions for the | | | | leagues was found to be 1.5, resulting in the average |
| upcoming match outcome. Each outcome has a | | | | profit of 19%. This difference means that a punter |
| distinct value. | | | | must have a higher confidence when betting on a |
| -- A value bet refers only to the value of potentially | | | | secondary league, than when betting on a top league. |
| profitable outcomes. For example, if the probability of a | | | | The profit is higher because bookmakers predictions |
| win is 50%, then only outcomes with odds higher than | | | | are worse, resulting in attractive betting odds for |
| 2 are considered a value bet. The formula is as | | | | punters. |
| follows: odds x the probability of a win. If the value is | | | | |