| Soccer experts provide you with betting tips, the | | | | profits for the lost games. This strategy is less |
| media publishes the latest news about the opponent | | | | aggressive than Martingale but still dangerous. |
| teams and their key players, bookmakers support | | | | -- Kelly criterion: mathematically proven to be the best |
| hundreds of betting methods… However, when you | | | | strategy in the long run. However, it requires knowing |
| finally place your huge wager on a sure favorite, this is | | | | the probability of a win. The stacks are calculated in |
| the time to start praying... Unfortunately, the world of | | | | proportion of the size of your funds and according to |
| soccer betting is quite unpredictable. There are | | | | the relation between the probability of a win and the |
| thousands of factors playing against us. How can we | | | | betting odds. When probability and odds are high, a high |
| cut our betting losses? The only way to do it is by | | | | stack will be placed and vice versa. |
| using money management strategies. | | | | DATA AND METHODS |
| This article summarizes the methods and strategies of | | | | In order to evaluate the performance of each strategy, |
| betting money management and provides a statistical | | | | we analyzed the betting odds set by bookmakers for |
| comparison of their performance based on betting | | | | the top European leagues. Imagine that bookmakers |
| odds and match results of top European leagues. | | | | are punters who place a stake on a favorite with |
| The most common betting money management | | | | minimal betting odds. One can easily estimate the |
| strategies in our days are: Martingale, Row of numbers | | | | probability of a win by dividing the average number of |
| and Kelly criterion. While the first two do not require | | | | home/draw/away outcomes by the total number of |
| any prior information, Kelly criterion requires the punter | | | | games in a season. |
| to know the probability of a win. | | | | The betting odds and results are taken from the four |
| DEFINITIONS | | | | European top leagues playing in the 2008/2009 |
| Before presenting the performance analysis, a brief | | | | season: English Premier, French Ligue 1, German |
| description of the above-mentioned strategies is | | | | Bundesliga 1 and Spanish Primera Division. |
| necessary: | | | | SUMMARY |
| -- Martingale strategy means doubling the stack after | | | | -- The results show that Kelly criterion is the best |
| a loss and returning back to the starting stack after a | | | | money management strategy of the three with an |
| win. This strategy is the most popular today and | | | | average profit of +5% compared to +1% (Row) and |
| promises positive profits, but requires intensive money | | | | +1.2% (Martingale). |
| investments. | | | | -- The most profitable was the French Ligue 1 with a |
| -- Row of numbers means planning a series of | | | | betting profit of +22% (Kelly), +9% (Row) and +10% |
| constant profits. Given betting odds, the punter | | | | (Martingale). |
| calculates each stake in a way that will allow him to | | | | -- The least profitable was the English Premier League |
| make the planned profit. In case he loses, he should | | | | with a betting loses of -10% (Kelly) ), -9% (Row) and |
| increase the next stack in such a way the profit will | | | | -8% (Martingale). |
| return both the money already lost and the planned | | | | |