| Making money in soccer betting is possible only when | | | | top European Soccer Leagues that played during the |
| your predictions are significantly different from those | | | | 2008/2009 season: Austrian Bundesliga, English |
| of the bookmakers. This is what is known as "value | | | | Premier, Dutch Eredivisie, French Ligue 1, German |
| betting". The profitability of fixture is a product of | | | | Bundesliga 1, Greek Ethniki Katigoria, Italian Serie A, |
| bookmaker odds and the probability of a win. A fixture | | | | Scottish Premier, Spanish Primera Division and Turkish |
| will be counted as "value bet", when the product is | | | | Super Lig. |
| higher than 1. For example, if you think the probability of | | | | The assumption is that bookmakers provide the |
| a win is 50%, then only odds higher than 2 are | | | | minimal betting odds for match favorites. Thus, these |
| considered a value bet. | | | | odds can be used to estimate the value bet for each |
| The value bet calculation can be easily integrated into | | | | match. The frequency of home wins, draws and away |
| the well-known and proven Kelly's strategy for money | | | | wins defines the probability of a win, and the value bet |
| management. According to this strategy, a stake is | | | | of a game is estimated by multiplying minimal average |
| calculated in a proportion to the starting wealth and the | | | | betting odds by the estimated probability of a win. |
| size of the expected profit. For example, if the | | | | Summary |
| probability of a win is 60% and the betting odds are | | | | An optimal value bet is calculated in a way that |
| equal to 2, then the betting stake which equals to | | | | maximizes the betting profits when using Kelly's money |
| 40%=60%-(1-60%)/2 of your wealth has to be placed. | | | | management strategy. The average betting profit is |
| Given the betting tips, what would be the optimal value | | | | calculated for the different value bets from 1.01 up to 2. |
| bet providing a maximum profit when using Kelly's | | | | The optimal value bet for the above top European |
| strategy? | | | | Leagues was found to be 1.38. Thus, if your value bet |
| This article summarizes a research intended to | | | | is above 1.38, this is your opportunity to place a stake |
| estimate an optimal value bet based on data from 10 | | | | according to Kelly's strategy. |