| To be a successful punter in soccer betting, you | | | | appearance in a national tournament. |
| should intelligently guess two main things: the probability | | | | - According to Kelly's strategy, the wager for each |
| of a win and the size of the stake. Online betting tips | | | | outcome is calculated as follows: w * (p-(1-p)/(odds-1)) |
| and team news can help you to estimate the | | | | (w represents the wealth of the punter and p is the |
| probability of a win, but choosing the stake size is a | | | | probability of a win). For example, if your wealth is |
| more complicated task that requires each punter to | | | | 1000$, p is 50% and the odds are 2.5, then the |
| decide according to his individual betting strategy. | | | | preferable wager is equal to 1000$*(0.5 - 0.5 |
| This article summarizes a research intended to | | | | (2.5-1))=166$ |
| optimize the use of Kelly strategy, the most profitable | | | | - The punter's profit is calculated by assuming he |
| of all the existing betting strategies. The research is | | | | places a wager according to the Kelly's strategy for |
| based on a comparison between statistics of betting | | | | those outcomes whose value is the closest to the |
| profits of top European soccer leagues that played | | | | value bet defined a priory. |
| during 2008/09 and those playing in 2009/10 seasons. | | | | - An optimal value bet is a bet resulting in a maximal |
| Data and Methods | | | | profit for a punter. |
| - The research was conducted based on match | | | | Research Summary |
| results and average betting odds from 60+ | | | | According to the research, the optimal value bet for |
| bookmakers taken from the following European | | | | soccer betting is 1.37 (2009) compared to 1.39 (2008). |
| Soccer leagues: Austrian Bundesliga, English Premier, | | | | The betting profit of a punter who uses Kelly's |
| Dutch Eredivisie, French Ligue 1, German Bundesliga 1, | | | | strategy with these optimal value bets is equal to 10% |
| Greek Ethniki Katigoria, Italian Serie A, Scottish Premier, | | | | in 2008 and 14% in 2009. The results show that when |
| Spanish Primera Division and Turkish Super Lig. | | | | a punter uses Kelly's strategy placing bets on the |
| - Each match outcome receives its own value defined | | | | outcomes with an average value bet of 1.38, the |
| by multiplication: odds x probability of a win. When this | | | | betting profits will be maximal. High quality betting tips |
| value is higher than one, it is considered as a "value | | | | can increase the profits dramatically but the optimal |
| bet". | | | | value bets have to be recalculated to adapt them to |
| - The probability of home win/draw/away wins in this | | | | the accuracy of your betting tips. |
| research is defined by the frequency of their | | | | |